One of the hot topics discussed at the European Summit of the heads of state and government of the European Union held on 17 and 18 October 2019 in Brussels was EU enlargement and the future of the Western Balkans. While most of the Member States were in favor of opening the accession negotiations with North Macedonia and Albania, the French president Emmanuel Macron vetoed the decision. The French veto was supported, only as far as Albania was concerned, by the leaders of Denmark and the Netherlands. Germany and other countries objected the French decision by arguing that the European Commission considered that North Macedonia and Albania had fully fulfilled the EU conditions and were ready to begin accession talks. The French decision also contradicts Brussels’s promise to begin this process [Iskenderov, 2019].
Since he came into power in 2017, the French President, Emmanuel Macron, has made no secret of his willingness to reform the European Union [Mallet, 2019]. He believes that the enlargement has failed and that Europe needs to strengthen itself internally before any further expansion. In doing so, President Macron ignored the already reached consensus, which annoyed even some of his longstanding allies. Such diplomatic practices, or as some call it “go-it-alone” diplomacy, are affecting France’s relations with its EU partners. They also led to a destabilization of the Franco-German partnership which is at the heart of the EU. Philippe Lamberts, co-President of the EFA Group in the EU Parliament, described Macron’s behavior as “quite imperiously” [Mallet,2019].
The Euopean Commission President, Jean- Claude Juncker, described Macron’s veto as a “historic error” [Tcherneva & Varma, 20199]. In response, Macron said “This is a dispute about vision,” and that “the enlargement rules need reform.” [Iskenderov,2019]. Such a split between the Member States may weaken the status of the European Union in the eyes of the Western Balkan countries. This could lead them to a change of their foreign policy priorities and a possible turn towards the entering into the integration mechanism offered by Russia.
Of course, North Macedonia and Albania were very disappointed by the French decision. Their leaders met in Serbia where they accused Brussels of ignoring their interests. Edi Rama, Prime Minister of Albania, called on North Macedonia not to wait for Brussels to give them tips, but rather to work on their foreign policy by themselves. He added that the relations which were built with the European Union have now been changed. The Albanian Prime Minister pointed out that Albania is not a priority anymore for the EU and it cannot be expected to become one. Instead, Albania should seek to establish better cooperation with the other Balkan countries [Iskenderov, 2019].
Meanwhile, the Prime Minister of North Macedonia, Zoran Zaev, was also frustrated by Macron’s veto. This, especially after he successfully negotiated and resolved a three-decade-long dispute with Greece about the name of his country which ended with the adoption of the new name, from Former Republic of Macedonia to Republic of North Macedonia [Bechev, 2019].
The French President’s decision undermined the relations between EU and the Western Balkans. With this veto, he also weakened all the EU policies aimed at rewarding countries that went through difficult reforms in order to progress on the membership path. By decreasing the motivation and hopes of the candidate countries for membership, the EU gives opportunity to Russia and China to increase its influence on them [Bechev, 2019].
China is now massively investing in Serbia, which is more advanced in the accession talks with the EU. In this way, China has become a major contributor for the development of the security sector in the country. China also invests in other candidate countries, such as Bosnia and Herzegovina where it is the single-largest postwar investor, and Montenegro, where China is investing $1.5 billion in infrastructure projects [Mujanović & Montgomery, 2019]. Russia also exerts a great influence in the Balkans. It is the most important energy supplier in the region and can rely on important cultural ties with a number of countries. As an example, and despite of the EU membership requirements, Serbia signed, this year a free trade deal with Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union. As a candidate country, Serbia was expected to implement EU sanctions imposed on Russia in 2014. On top of strengthening its relationship, Serbia also upgraded its military cooperation with Russia. One of the factors that probably influenced the decision to sign the trade deal was the raising frustration in Belgrade with respect to the slow pace towards EU membership. What looks certain is that if Serbia wants to join the EU, it will have to severe some its bilateral trade deals with Russia and won’t be able to be fully included in Eurasian Economic Union [Zivanovic, 2019]. All these examples show the extent to which, while the EU backs away, Russia and China are able to noticeably increase their influence within the region.
As the Polish President, Andrzej Duda recently said at a gathering of the Visegrad Group (Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic) the beginning of the accession talks with North Macedonia and Albania would indicate “how open the EU really is” [Iskenderov, 2019]).
With the French President’s opposition, the EU reputation, as a helping and rewarding bloc, has been significantly undermined not only in the eyes of the two candidates countries, but also in the eyes of the Balkan region as a whole. Having in mind these dimensions, the EU should take actions to convince President Macron to give the candidate countries the opportunity to begin their accession talks, as it was listed in the official decisions of the EU. If this does not happen soon, there is a risk of further destabilization in the region. Moreover, the EU credibility would decrease both within and outside the Union. Last but not least, the raising influence of other economic powers, such as China and Russia, will increase even more in Europe, which could lead to further challenges for the EU.
References
Bechev, D. [2019]. Did Macron Kill the EU Enlargement Dream? Macron | Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera, 23 Oct. Link: https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/macron-kill-eu-enlargement-dream-191023072639960.html.
Iskenderov, P.[2019]. Balkans Splitting EU Apart. 21 Oct.Link: https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2019/10/22/balkans-splitting-eu-apart/.
Mallet, V. [2019]. Imperious’ Macron Tests Patience of EU Partners. 31 Oct. Link: https://www.ft.com/content/f88bb702-f99b-11e9-a354-36acbbb0d9b6. Accessed 1 Nov. 2019.
Mujanović, J. and Montgomery, M. [2019]. Macron’s Veto Leaves Balkans Wide Open for Russia and China. Link: Foreign Policy, 31 Oct. 2019, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/31/western-balkans-european-union-veto-russia-china/
Tcherneva, V. & Varma. T. [2019]. After the French Veto: The New Scramble for the Western Balkans. ECFR, 25 Oct. Link: https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_after_the_french_veto_the_new_scramble_for_the_western_balkans.
Zivanovic, Maja. “EU Firms Reap Benefits of Serbia-Russia Trade Ties.” Balkan Insight, 9 Oct. 2019, https://balkaninsight.com/2019/10/09/eu-firms-reap-benefits-of-serbia-russia-trade-ties/?nocache