On the 17th and 18th of October 2019 the European Council met in Brussels to discuss various topics regarding the EU’s future [European Council, 2019]. Among them were: Brexit, plans for the next five years, long-term budget as well as EU enlargement. More specifically it had to decide whether or not to grant North Macedonia the status of candidate country and start membership negotiations.
Plamen Markov is a Senior Student at AUBG majoring in History and in European Studies.
Despite the enthusiasm shown in North Macedonia for EU membership, such ambition was halted due to the French veto. Even though, this veto may have been based on good intentions, it was almost unanimously regarded as a mistake from the point of view of EU foreign policy. Could this lead to Macedonia slip backwards such as Turkey and becoming an even larger problem for the European Union?
North Macedonia’s willingness to join the EU led the country to a number of compromises and hard decisions. First the newly elected Prime Minister, Zaev, committed to implement the required reforms. Second, he succeeded in settling the twenty-year long dispute with Greece by adopting the new name for the country, from Macedonia to North Macedonia.
Whatever motivations may have triggered those decisions, , joining the EU or simply accomplishing economic reforms, they should not be brushed off by the EU. Indeed, these decisions show the impact that the EU can have at a normative power or even as a transformative power. Indeed, EU membership appears as a strong source of motivation to embrace EU values such as human rights, liberty and sustainable development and to transform in view of achieving similar levels of prosperity than the other member states. However, the recent decision to deny North Macedonia starting enlargement process presents the danger of turning the local people away from these values and objectives and makes the EU look like as a fickle partner.
Since 2005, Macedonia has been in the process of improving in view of starting membership talks. It has overcome many obstacles in order to reach that stage. Even now, there are still many issues that need to be resolved. The political situation remains instable despite of the progress made by the Przino agreement. One can understand that some member states are willing not to let countries joining the EU without guarantees. But the enlargement policy aimed precisely at encouraging them to improve.
Macedonia has made remarkable progress in various fields. It is regretful that while these were acknowledged by all, one country decided to ignore them. France’s veto on the decision to start accession talks with North Macedonia should be considered as a major mistake.
Next April, Macedonia will hold emergency elections, which means that the current government will not be able to reach its full term.
This raises the issue of the continuity of reforms in this context of uncertainty The French veto could also affect the relations between the EU and the Balkans as a whole. The region has always been unstable and one of the objectives of EU’s enlargement policy is to bring more stability. After the name issue was resolved which resulted in a difficult compromise, the EU should also be able to show its willingness to compromise. In other words, the EU’s transformative power works well only when it’s able to generate cultivate a positive proper attitude towards itself. No achieving this may turn people off from the EU entirely as it loses credibility and make them become more nationalistic.
Macedonia itself may not be in any danger for now. The prime minister that has been elected will continue to work towards a better outcome, but his time is restricted. The citizens of Macedonia who have make tremendous efforts may feel abandoned by the EU. . This may well lead them to electing a more nationalistic prime minister who will focus on keeping the country self-sufficient with the risk of further destabilizing relations with both the European Union and other countries on the Balkan Peninsula [Michalopoulos, 2019]. That option seems even more likely with the emergency elections, though so far there have not been any large protests [Delaunay, 2019].
The credibility of the EU is in danger due to the fact that many people will now see how quickly it appears to change its mind [European Parliament, 2019]. As a role model that relies on normative and transformative power at the core of its enlargement policy, the EU may see its main strategy be considerably hampered .After all if there is no unity between the EU Member States themselves, why should other countries try to work towards its stability as well?
However, the soft power used by the EU and the various funds can help keep relations at least somewhat amicable. The Balkans are dependent on the EU for trade and programs such as the Cohesion Fund, which would prevent relations from dropping too low, but the issue of credibility cannot be ignored.
In conclusion, while the decision is unlikely to cause a complete collapse of EU-Macedonian relations and lead to a civil war, it may impact negatively future discussions on membership for North Macedonia and other countries as well. . The EU cannot be trusted to function as a Union, if the member states are unable to come to a decision after so many years. Prime Minister Zaev is still working towards achieving EU membership, but Russia may try to take advantage of the situation. So, it is crucial that the EU change its position quickly and assesses more carefully the risks for Macedonia to slide towards the Turkish model instead of the EU one.
REFERENCES
Delauney, G. [2019]. European snub to North Macedonia fuels frustration in Balkans, 2 Noevmber. Link: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50260379
European Council [2019]. Council conclusions on enlargement and stabilisation and association process, 18 June. Link: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2019/06/18/council-conclusions-on-enlargement-and-stabilisation-and-association-process/
European Parliament [2019]. Failure to open accession talks with Albania and North Macedonia is a mistake, 24 October. Link: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20191021IPR64717/failure-to-open-accession-talks-with-albania-and-north-macedonia-is-a-mistake
Michalopoulos, S. [2019]. Macron’s veto undermines Balkan stability, Greek MEP says , 21 October. Link: https://www.euractiv.com/section/enlargement/news/macrons-veto-undermines-balkan-stability-greek-mep-says/