The problem of absorbing immigrants into Europe persists as, in the first eight months of 2019, around 70,800 irregular border crossings were detected at the EU’s external borders. There has been a significant increase in the number of arrivals to the Greek islands due to the Syrian civil war, the situation in Afghanistan and the war against the Islamic State. From the beginning of 2019 to 6 October, more than 47,500 arrivals were recorded in Greece by sea and by land, a 29% increase on the same period in 2018 [European Commission 2019].
From the beginning of the so-called refugee crisis in 2015, the main priority for countries such as Italy, Germany and France has been to come up with a permanent and sustainable strategy for dealing with the refugees coming into European Union. That being said, their efforts led to little results.
Even though the EU is directly affected by the conflicts that are taking place in its close proximity, it has, so far, chosen to take relatively passive foreign policy approach to them. Instead, countries like the US, Turkey and Russia have taken the responsibility for intervention, mediation and negotiations.
In October 2019, however, as President Trump announced the withdrawal of US troops from Syria, Turkish President Erdogan began military operations against the Kurds in northeastern Syria, taking advantage of the power vacuum left by the US. This should compel the EU to come up with a strategic plan to strengthen its position in order to prevent another influx of refugees since Turkey is threatening to open the gates and lets refugees flee into Europe.
As the EU has rather limited military capabilities and a complicated decision-making process, its foreign policy has never been about direct military intervention. Thus, even though such an approach towards Syria would enhance the collective foreign and security policy of Europe, it is unlikely to be successful.
Since the beginning of the Syrian conflict in 2011, the EU has avoided to be involved directly in it apart for minor funding support. This led the EU to be increasingly dependent on Turkey to stop the influx of refugees coming to Europe. In 2016, the EU had to make a deal with Turkey called the EU Facility for Refugees amounting to 6 billion euros in aid so the country has enough financial resources to provide asylum to over 4 million refugees.
Currently, however, the EU is struggling to create a dialogue with Turkey as it seems to be having little in no political or economic leverage over decisions regarding Syria. Those decisions are made by one man only, Erdogan, who follows highly nationalistic policies aimed at dominance and economic self-sufficiency. Therefore, if arms embargoes and sanctions would have some effect on Turkey, such effect is likely to be limited one unless there is greater cohesion in the EU positions.
After Turkey’s incursion into Syria, the EU foreign affairs ministers met on 14 October and decided to suspend arms exports to Turkey, but they failed to implement an official EU-wide embargo [Weise & Barigazzi 2019]. The EU Foreign Affairs Council also adopted conclusions condemning the military actions of Turkey as it seriously hinders the security in the region, causes human suffering and increases the displacement of civilians. But it also confirmed its acknowledgement of Turkey as a key partner for the EU partner and made the commitment to solving the security issues caused by its neighbor through political and diplomatic means, following international law, while excluding military action (Foreign Affairs Council]
Ahead of the High-level NATO Conference on Arms Control and Disarmament on 23 October, the German defense minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer asserted the need for a strong international response and proposed the establishment of an UN-guarded safe zone in northeastern Syria. Germany promoted its vision before its NATO allies stating that the crisis should be resolved by cohesive international action and should not be left in the hands of Turkey and Russia alone.
Kramp-Karrenbauer, however, underlined that Turkey and Russia should be included in the discussions about the safe zone because they are the major actors in Syria. In her view, the EU and the international community have the choice to either actively work with Erdogan and Putin or observe from aside on how they decide the future of Syria between them. Even though Russia and Turkey recently agreed on the Sochi memorandum under which Turkey pledged to restrict its military operations in northern Syria, the EU member states are still concerned about the plans of Erdogan regarding the Kurdish populations both in Syria and in Turkey. The proposal of the German defense minister envisions that the so-called security zone would “stabilize the region and rebuild civilian life so that those who have fled can return voluntarily” [Deutsche Welle 2019].
Although Kramp-Karrenbauer has won the support of the German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her initiative has also been welcomed by the US, NATO, the other EU member states have not shown a clear support for it. The US Defense secretary Mark Esper stated that the German plan is in accordance with US foreign policy objectives because it addresses the need for Europe to contribute more to its own security. He outlined, however, that the US does not currently intent to participate by sending American soldiers. NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, expressed support for the initiative but stated that the political feasibility of implementing such a plan is hard to predict. According to him the details of the proposal need to be discussed before any decision on an UN-wide level. Spain and France stated that they would need more time to evaluate the situation before backing the initiative [Brzozowski 2019]. The defense ministers of some EU member states are concerned that the proposal may undermine the EU diplomatic approach by which it should continue to stick to its humanitarian approach to the conflict.
Germany intends to use in its advantage as nonpermanent members at the UN Security Council to reach out for wider support by engaging in bilateral talks with all parties involved in the conflict [Deutsche Welle 2019]. They are indeed some questions which the proposal of Kramp-Karrenbauer leaves unanswered such as whether the UN would be granting a mandate for a military force patrolling the safety zone, whether Germany itself would contribute to it with troops and whether other countries would participate in the proposed operation [Burchard 2019]. It is also unclear how the German plan would overlap with the Turkish proposal for a safety zone in Syria especially after the recent Sochi agreement between Turkey and Russia which is designed to ensure the withdrawal of Kurdish forces form the Turkish border and create a buffer zone. Moreover, given the fact that Turkey and Russia agreed to conduct joint patrols in the border region, it is likely that Russia would veto any UN resolution to establish an international security zone in the area, as it has no interest in having other troops on the ground.
To conclude, there is an opportunity for the EU to change its approach regarding the Syrian conflict and engage actively in forging a permanent solution that would contribute to its own security. If EU member states act coherently and back the German proposal of establishing an international security zone along the Syrian-Turkish border, the collective foreign policy and security of the region would enhance greatly. The EU needs such an actionable strategy in order to shape an environment that serves its interests and ensures that the developments on the ground in Syria do not result in more forced migrations or human rights violations.
References
Brzozowski, A. [2019]. NATO Slams Turkey over Syria, Lukewarm Reactions to German ‘Safe Zone’ Proposal.25 Oct. Link: https://www.euractiv.com/section/defence-and-security/news/nato-slams-turkey-over-syria-lukewarm-reactions-to-german-safe-zone-proposal/
Burchard, H. [2019]. German Minister’s Syria Plan Falls Flat. Politico 28 Oct. Link: https://www.politico.eu/article/german-ministers-syria-plan-falls-flat-annegret-kramp-karrenbauer/.
Deutsche Welle [2019]. German Defense Chief Recommends International Security Zone in Syria: DW: 22 October. Link: https://www.dw.com/en/german-defense-chief-recommends-international-security-zone-in-syria/a-50924304.
European Commission [2019]. Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the European Council and the Council: Progress report on the Implementation of the European Agenda on Migration 16 October. Link: https://ec.europa.eu/home-affairs/sites/homeaffairs/files/what-we-do/policies/european-agenda-migration/20191016_com-2019-481-report_en.pdf
Foreign Affairs Council [2019].North East Syria: Council Adopts Conclusions. 14 Oct. 2019. Link: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2019/10/14/council-conclusions-on-north-east-syria/.
Weise, Z. & Barigazzi, J.[2019]. EU Countries Agree to Suspend Arms Exports to Turkey.” Politico, 15 Oct.Link: https://www.politico.eu/article/turkey-kurds-assault-eu-to-suspend-arms-exports/