On Nov. 7, 2020, four days after Election Day, Joe Biden was declared the projected winner of the 2020 US presidential election. On the other side of the Atlantic, France’s Macron and Germany’s Merkel congratulated the president-elect with relief after turbulent four years under President Trump. It was the long-awaited moment to rebuild a strained transatlantic partnership; it was time to return to a less erratic approach to international relations. However, this should hide the fact that the West is still facing its most formidable challenge: an increasingly assertive China. Paradoxically, the hostility of President Trump allowed the EU to keep some flexibility in its approach towards China. Such a flexibility may well vanish if the EU bandwagons the USA in its dealing with China. That’s precisely the reason why the EU needs to be cautious about hastily embracing transatlantic cooperation with the newly elected administration before considering its unique role in a 21st-century bipolar world.
EU-China relations have evolved over the last few years, partly due to tensions escalated by Trump, into a complex, brutal rivalry. In March 2019, the European Commission labeled China a “systemic rival” — it was the first time China was not referred to as a “strategic partner” in an official EU document [Green European Journal, 2020]. China’s aggressive investment schemes, including the Belt and Road Initiative and 17+1, were the primary causes for concern in Brussels. However, I argue that it is not Chinese market distortion practices that make China an existential threat to the European project — it is, instead, China’s apparent disregard for democracy and human rights.
Since Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, China has become more autocratic, centralized, and assertive in its diplomatic practices. The Hong Kong events are only the most visible example of Chinese authoritarianism in action. In Europe, China has engaged in “wolf warrior” diplomacy in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, wedging more divisions across the bloc. While the EU was customarily slow in its response to Covid-19, China flew over medical experts and gifted equipment to Italy, the most affected country at the time and not coincidentally the only major member state to join the Belt and Road Initiative. The West was suddenly pressed not only by a public health crisis but also by an ideological dilemma: perhaps authoritarian states such as China were better positioned to respond to 21st-century challenges than liberal democracies. The EU, which prides itself in its “normative power”, cannot allow such a narrative to thrive because the core values of democracy and universal human rights lie at the heart of its past, present, and future.
In a year when good news is rare when the West is at a low point, Biden’s victory feels like a desperately needed new hope for the international liberal order. Biden undoubtedly symbolizes a return of US global leadership, having served as Obama’s Vice-President. His Foreign Affairs piece titled “Why America Must Lead Again” is very indicative of his intention to build a “united front of U.S. allies and partners to confront China’s abusive behaviors and human rights violations” [ECFR, 2020]. In terms of raw foreign policy, Biden’s approach to China is likely to be as transactional as Trump’s, albeit more principled. Biden will put a bigger emphasis on democracy and human rights. Such emphasis was absent during the Trump years, and therein lies the most significant convergence of interest with the EU.
Will the EU join Biden’s “united front” against China? The logical answer is a capital-letter YES, but such a response should be followed by a capital-letter BUT: the EU needs to engage the US as an independent actor, not as a junior partner in a Biden-led coalition of countries.
If the EU is to be an independent actor, it must first decide the future of “strategic autonomy” before it engages in a renewed transatlantic partnership. Clément Beaune, France’s Minister of State for European Affairs, echoed the concept of “strategic autonomy” when he spoke of the election result: “What’s important for Europeans is that they don’t expect their future to be determined by America” [The Atlantic, 2020]. Of course, transatlantic sentiments would have been uncomfortably different had Trump won re-election, yet Europe would have been forced to become more independent under a second Trump term. Trump paradoxically put much-needed pressure on the EU to reassess its role in the Western alliance, which is now gone. Unfortunately, there is a risk that the EU will back down on its quest for “strategic autonomy” and the EU’s recent draft policy paper titled “a new EU-US agenda for global change” seems to be a bit rushed [Financial Times, 2020].
While the draft paper, partly written by the Commission and High Representative for Foreign Policy Josep Borrell, deserves some credit, it highlighted some remaining disagreements between the EU and the US. Indeed, it is crucial for the EU to Trump lesson from its dealing with the Trump administration and to move toward greater autonomy in its transatlantic partner. Europe cannot take Biden for granted; it should, at the very least be prepared to address the scary scenario of a second Trump term in 2024.
Europe is happy about the upcoming Biden administration, America and Europe are natural partners, and China is their common rival. Yet, Europe should move to build multilateral institutions (reforming the WTO could be a start) by engaging both the US and China. That should be the EU’s strategic priority if it hopes to stay relevant in the long term.
REFERENCES
The Atlantic [2020]. “Europe Can’t Blame Donald Trump Anymore.”https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/11/donald-trump-europe-bogeyman/617054/.
ECFR [2020]. “Western Democracies United.”https://ecfr.eu/article/western-democracies-united/.
Financial Times [2020]. “EU Proposes Fresh Alliance with US in Face of China Challenge.”https://www.ft.com/content/e8e5cf90-7448-459e-8b9f-6f34f03ab77a.
Green European Journal [2020]. “The EU and China: From Strategic Partners to Systemic Rivals.” https://www.greeneuropeanjournal.eu/the-eu-and-china-from-strategic-partners-to-systemic-rivals/.https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/11/donald-trump-europe-bogeyman/617054/.
ECFR [2020]. “Western Democracies United.”https://ecfr.eu/article/western-democracies-united/.